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南京餐饮发票 【转】算一下美国金融危机有多重大

style="font-size:14px;"> 2008-10-01 15:02:43算一下美国金融危机有多严峻
危言
对金融危机最广泛的官方说明是次贷问题,然而次贷总共不过多少千亿,而美国政府救市资金早已到了万亿以上,为什么危机仍是看不到头?有文章指出危机的本源是金融机构采用“杠杆”交易;另一些专家指出金融危机的背地是62万亿的信誉违约掉期(Credit Default Swap, CDS)。那么,次贷,杠杆和CDS之间毕竟是什么关联?它们之间通过什么样的彼此作用发生了今天的金融危机?在众多的金融危机分析文章中,始终没有看到对这些问题的简略明了的解释。本文试图通过自己的懂得为这些问题供给一个谜底,为艰深易懂起见,咱们应用了几个设想的例子。有不适当之处欢送批驳探讨。
一。杠杆。目前,很多投资银行动了赚取暴利,采取20-30倍杠杆操作,假设一个银行A自身资产为30亿,30倍杠杆就是900亿。也就是说,这个银行A以30亿资产为典质去借900亿的资金用于投资,如果投资盈利5%,那么A就取得45亿的盈利,相对A本身资产而言,这是150%的暴利。反过来,如果投资亏损5%,那么银行A赔光了本人的全体资产还欠15亿。
二。CDS合同。因为杠杆操作高风险,依照划定,不容许银前进行这样的冒险操作。所以就有人想出一个措施,把杠杆投资拿去做“保险”。这种保险就叫CDS。比方,银行A为了回避杠杆风险就找到了机构B。机构B可能是另一家银行,也可能是保险公司,诸如此类。A对B说,你帮我的贷款做违约保险怎么样,我每年付你保险费5千万,持续10年,总共5亿,如果我的投资没有违约,那么这笔保险费你就白拿了,假如违约,.清迈旅行(5),你要为我赔偿。A想,如果不违约,我可以赚45亿,这里面拿出5亿用来做保险,我还能净赚40亿。假如有违约,反正有保险来赔。所以对A而言这是一笔只赚不赔的生意。B是一个精明的人,没有马上许可A的邀请,而是回去做了一个统计剖析,发明违约的情况不到1%。如果做一百家的生意,总计可以拿到500亿的保险金,如果其中一家违约,抵偿额最多不过50亿,即便两家违约,还能赚400亿。A,B双方都以为这笔买卖对自己有利,因此立刻拍板成交,大快人心。
三。CDS市场。B做了这笔保险生意之后,C在旁边眼红了。C就跑到B那边说,你把这100个CDS卖给我怎么样,每个合同给你2亿,总共200亿。B想,我的400亿要10年才干拿到,现在一转手就有200亿,而且不危险,何乐而不为,因此B和C立刻就成交了。这样一来,CDS就像股票一样流到了金融市场之上,可以交易跟交易。实际上C拿到这批CDS之后,并不想等上10年再收取200亿,而是把它挂牌出卖,标价220亿;D看到这个产品,算了一下,400亿减去220亿,还有180亿可赚,这是“原始股”,不算贵,即时买了下来。一转手,C赚了20亿。从此当前,这些CDS就在市场上重复的抄,现在CDS的市场总值已经抄到了62万亿美元。
四。次贷。上面A,B,C,D,E,F....都在赚大钱,那么这些钱到底从那里冒出来的呢?从基本上说,这些钱来自A以及同A相仿的投资人的盈利。而他们的盈利大半来自美国的次级贷款。人们说次贷危机是因为把钱借给了穷人。笔者对这个说法不以为然。笔者认为,次贷重要是给了一般的美国房产投资人。这些人的经济实力原来只够买自己的一套住房,然而看到房价疾速上涨,动起了房产投机的主张。他们把自己的房子抵押出去,贷款买投资房。这类贷款利息要在8%-9%以上,凭他们自己的收入很难凑合,不过他们可以持续把房子抵押给银行,借钱付利息,空手套白狼。此时A很兴奋,他的投资在为他赚钱;B也很愉快,市场违约率很低,保险生意能够继承做;后面的C,D,E,F等等都随着赚钱。
五。次贷危机。房价涨到必定的水平就涨不上去了,后面没人接盘。此时房产投契人急得像热锅上的蚂蚁。房子卖不出去,高额本钱要不停的付,回到墨尔本(1)-预约医院,终于到了走头无路的一天,把屋子甩给了银行。此时违约就产生了。此时A觉得一丝遗憾,大钱赚不着了,不外也亏不到那里,反正有B做保险。B也不担忧,反正保险已经卖给了C。那么当初这份CDS保险在那里呢,在G手里。G刚从F手里花了300亿买下了100个CDS,还没来得及转手,忽然接到新闻,这批CDS被降级,其中有20个违约,大大超越本来估量的1%到2%的违约率。每个违约要支付50亿的保险金,总共支出达1000亿。加上300亿CDS收购费,G的亏损总计达1300亿。固然G是全美排行前10名的大机构,也经不起如斯宏大的亏损。因而G濒临倒闭。
六。金融危机。如果G倒闭,那么A破费5亿美元买的保险就泡了汤,更蹩脚的是,由于A采用了杠杆原理投资,依据前面的分析,[转],A赔光全部资产也不够还债。因此A立刻面临破产的危险。除了A之外,还有A2,A3,...,A20,统统要筹备倒闭。因此G,A,A2,...,A20一起来到美国财政部长眼前,一把鼻涕一把眼泪地游说,G万万不能倒闭,它一倒闭大家都完了。财政部长心一软,就把G给国有化了,尔后A,...,A20的保险金总计1000亿美元全部由美国征税人支付。
七。美元危机。上面讲到的100个CDS的市场价是300亿。而CDS市场总值是62万亿,假设其中有10%的违约,那么就有6万亿的违约CDS。这个数字是300亿的200倍。如果说美国政府收购价值300亿的CDS之后要赔出1000亿。那么对于剩下的那些违约CDS,美国政府就要赔出20万亿。如果不赔,就要看着A20,A21,A22等等一个接一个倒闭。无论采用什么办法,美元大贬值已经不可防止,南京餐饮发票
以上盘算所用的假设和数字同实际情形会有出入,但美国金融危机的重大性无奈低估。
参考文献
[1]The Real Reason for the Global Financial Crisis…the Story No One’s Talking About
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